Reading the Economic Tea Leaves

Seven 2025 recession indicators are telling the same story. The question isn’t whether we’re in trouble. It’s what we do about it.

Richard Kemner

Founder and CEO, RDK Truck Sales

December 2025

After 42 years in the refuse equipment industry, starting in 1983 when I rode garbage routes at 5 AM to earn meetings with decision makers, I’ve learned to pay attention to economic indicators that don’t make headlines. The data points I’m watching right now tell a consistent story.

None of this is meant to be doom and gloom. It’s meant to be real. And real is what helps us make smart decisions.

So let me tell you what I’m seeing. These are the 2025 recession indicators that paint a very real picture.

• • •

THE FREIGHT RECESSION

If you want to know where the economy is headed, follow the trucks. National freight tonnage is down roughly 7% year over year. More concerning is the duration: we’re now in the longest freight recession in modern history, stretching back to April 2022. Over three years of declining volumes.

Q4 2024 shipments fell 4.7%, marking the tenth consecutive quarterly decline (source). Spot market loads are down approximately 30% compared to last year (source). Carrier bankruptcies have increased by 30% (source), with over 17,500 trucking companies losing their operating authority.

Driver profits have collapsed from roughly $1 per mile to just 3 cents.

When trucks aren’t moving, goods aren’t flowing. When goods aren’t flowing, the economy is contracting.

“Over 70% of all goods in America move by truck. This is the circulatory system of the economy, and it’s showing reduced blood flow.”

THE CLASS 8 COLLAPSE

This one hits close to home. September 2025 Class 8 retail sales fell 25.6% to just 16,228 units. Class 8 truck orders hit a 16-year low in June 2025. That’s the weakest order activity since 2009.

New truck inventories are approaching all-time highs. Combined net orders for September and October are 32% below year ago levels. Publicly traded fleets ended Q1 2025 with the weakest net income margins since 2010.

OCTOBER 2025 SALES BY MANUFACTURER (source)

• Freightliner: 4,738 units, down 39.7% from October 2024
• Volvo: YTD lags 24.1% behind 2024 pace
• International: Down 33% from October 2024
• Peterbilt: Down 27.9% from October 2024
• Kenworth: Down 25.8% from October 2024
• Mack: YTD sales up 12.2% (the only bright spot)

Used truck prices fell 3.5% month over month in October and are now down 8% year over year. Tariffs are adding approximately $9,000 to $10,000 per Class 8 unit.

When companies stop buying $150,000 trucks, they’re telling you they don’t see growth ahead.

THE BELLWETHERS ARE CUTTING

When the two largest employers in the country start trimming, it means something.

Amazon is cutting approximately 14,000 corporate positions (source). Link Walmart eliminated 1,500 jobs and froze headcount at 2.1 million employees (source). These aren’t struggling companies. They’re the most sophisticated demand forecasters on the planet.

They’re seeing something.

The first 10 months of 2025 saw 1.1 million announced layoffs, 44% higher than the same period in 2024 and the highest level since 2020. Both companies are accelerating automation: over 50% of e-commerce operations and more than 60% of stores are getting automated freight systems.

The jobs being eliminated aren’t coming back. This is structural change, not cyclical adjustment.

THE GARBAGE INDEX

This is my world, and it never lies.

“As Deutsche Bank’s chief international economist Torsten Slok noted in a 2016 CNBC interview, garbage volumes track consumption with remarkable precision.” (Source)

Municipalities across the country are reporting declining waste tonnages. A study in Cedar Rapids found direct correlation between garbage weight and economic activity. Many assumed commercial volumes would rebound after the pandemic. They haven’t. Landfills reported overall tonnage declines.

People are simply consuming less because everything costs more.

“People can lie on surveys. Garbage cans can’t.”

THE HOUSING OVERHANG

Unsold completed new single-family homes hit 121,000 in July 2025. The highest level since July 2009, during the last recession. We haven’t seen this much unsold builder inventory in 16 years.

Housing inventory is back to pre-pandemic 2019 levels, with 33% more homes on the market now than a year ago. New home sales in July 2025 were down 8.1% compared to the previous year. That’s eight consecutive quarters of year over year price declines.

Lennar, one of the nation’s largest builders, is offering buyer incentives totaling 13% of sale price. Up from just 1.5% in Q2 2022. On a $400,000 home, that’s $52,000 in givebacks.

That’s not confidence.

THE LABOR SHIFT

For the first time in over 50 years, the United States is experiencing negative net migration (source). More people are leaving than arriving.

Construction wages are up 8-9% as labor shortages intensify (source). In agriculture, hospitality, and construction, costs are rising and output is falling. Fewer workers mean fewer consumers, fewer renters, fewer car buyers, and less economic activity overall.

It’s a headwind that won’t be resolved quickly.

THE HEALTHCARE SQUEEZE

ACA marketplace premiums are up 26% for 2026. (source) Employer sponsored coverage costs rose 6 to 7% this year. GLP 1 drugs like Ozempic and Wegovy are driving quarterly pharmacy cost increases of 25 to 30%.

For small and mid-sized businesses, healthcare is becoming an existential cost. Every dollar that goes to premiums is a dollar not available for wages, equipment, or expansion.

• • •

RECESSION OR CORRECTION?

So here’s the question everyone’s asking: Is this a recession, or are we watching a long overdue price correction after years of overspending?

I think it’s both. And something more.

What we’re experiencing is the hangover from years of unprecedented government spending, near zero interest rates, and stimulus checks that flooded the economy with money that had to go somewhere. It went into inflated asset prices, speculative investments, and consumption patterns that were never sustainable.

Now the bill is coming due.

But it’s not just the money. It’s the uncertainty.

The average American is watching Republicans and Democrats fight like it’s a blood sport while nothing gets solved. Healthcare costs keep climbing. The border remains a mess. Regulations change with every administration. Trade policy swings from tariffs to free trade and back again.

Nobody knows what the rules will be next year, let alone five years from now.

And then there’s the world stage. Russia and Ukraine. China and Taiwan. The Middle East in flames. Foreign governments jockeying for position while the global order that American businesses counted on for decades looks increasingly fragile.

Supply chains that once seemed reliable now feel like a gamble.

“Whether you call it a recession or a correction almost doesn’t matter. What matters is the psychology. And right now, the psychology is defensive.”

Put it all together and what do you get? An American consumer and business owner who’s uneasy. Not panicked, but cautious. Holding back on the big purchase. Delaying the expansion. Keeping cash on hand instead of investing.

That unease shows up in every indicator I’ve outlined above. Freight doesn’t move when people aren’t buying. Trucks don’t sell when fleets aren’t confident. Houses sit unsold when families aren’t sure about tomorrow.

Garbage gets lighter when consumption pulls back.

THE OPPORTUNITY

Here’s what 42 years has taught me: the companies that thrive aren’t the ones who wait for conditions to improve. They’re the ones who see opportunity where others see only risk.

This market is going to expose weakness. Competitors who got comfortable during the good years, who let their service slip, who stopped investing in relationships. They’re going to make mistakes. They’re going to disappoint customers who have fewer dollars and higher expectations than ever before.

When that happens, step in. Show what you can do. Surprise the market with your ability to adapt, to plan ahead, to deliver when others can’t or won’t.

Get closer to your customers, not pull back. Share what you’re seeing. Be the partner who brings information and insight, not just invoices. When you help your customers plan for what’s coming, you become essential to their operation.

The companies that plan together execute together. Help your customers understand their options. Show them the data. When they see you thinking about their business as seriously as they do, trust deepens. And trust is the only currency that holds its value in uncertain times.

This market will change. It always does. But not everyone will be there to see it. Some competitors will have retreated. Some will have made the wrong bets. Some will have burned relationships they can’t rebuild.

Those left standing will thrive.

This isn’t the time for fear. It’s the time for focus, for discipline, for proving what you’re made of. The opportunity is there for anyone willing to see it and act on it.

These 2025 recession indicators aren’t a crystal ball—they’re data points to inform your decision-making, not dictate it. Your business has its own variables, and the right path forward depends on your specific situation. For a deeper look at one of the most consequential equipment decisions you’ll face in this environment, read our guide on leasing vs. purchasing.