The refuse industry is facing unprecedented regulatory uncertainty heading into 2027.
Here’s the straight story on where things stand and what it means for your fleet purchasing decisions. Planning for the EPA 2027 emissions standards needs to start now.
The Current Situation:
EPA 2027 emission standards – still the law – but it’s under attack. The Biden-era regulations requiring an 82.5% reduction in NOx emissions for model year 2027 trucks remain on the books. However, in March 2025, EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin announced the agency would “reconsider” these standards as part of what he called “the greatest day of deregulation in American history.”
In July 2025, the EPA formally proposed rescinding the 2009 Endangerment Finding—the legal foundation that allows the federal government to regulate greenhouse gas emissions from vehicles. If finalized, this would effectively invalidate all federal vehicle GHG standards.
In June 2025, President Trump signed resolutions revoking California’s Clean Air Act waivers, nullifying CARB’s Advanced Clean Trucks and Low-NOx Omnibus rules in the 14 states that had adopted them.
What EPA 2027 Emission Standards Would Require for Refuse Trucks
- NOx drops to 0.035 g/hp-hr, down from 0.2 g/hp-hr today (82.5% reduction)
- Useful life extends to 650,000 miles – up from 100,000 miles
- Aftertreatment warranties extend to 450,000 miles – up from 100,000 miles
- New technology required: cylinder deactivation, dual aftertreatment systems, heated DEF dosers, and likely 24-volt electrical systems.
- Projected cost increase: $20,000 to $30,000 per truck
The Problem: Nobody Knows What’s Coming
The Trump administration has made its intentions clear, but the regulatory process takes time. Repealing or modifying these rules require formal rulemaking, public comment periods, and scientific justification. Legal challenges are already mounting California and other states have filed lawsuits arguing the CRA resolutions are improper.
Industry experts warn that by late 2025, it’s “getting too late” to eliminate or overhaul the 2027 rules without causing chaos. OEMs typically need four years of lead time for major regulatory changes, and model year 2027 production begins in less than 18 months and at this point the EPA 2027 Emission Standards are still not set.
The result: The expected 2025-2026 pre-buy never happened. Fleets are stuck in “wait and see” mode, uncertain whether to buy now or hold off. Cummins reported a 29% drop in North American heavy-duty engine sales in Q2 2025 directly due to this uncertainty.
What the Truck Manufacturers Are Doing about the EPA 2027 Emission Standards
Here’s what’s critical to understand: OEMs are moving forward with 2027-compliant engines regardless of what happens in Washington.
- Daimler (Freightliner, Western Star): “All previously communicated plans remain unchanged.” They’ll offer EPA-compliant DD13, DD15, and DD16 engines for 2027.
- PACCAR (Kenworth, Peterbilt): “Our product plans will not change unless regulation law changed… we plan for multiple outcomes and are prepared to comply with every regulatory scenario.”
- Volvo/Mack: Confirmed both brands will “comply with the requirements of the regulatory landscape.”
- Cummins: Already unveiled the next-generation X15 diesel designed for both EPA and California 2027 standards, with a 48-volt electrical system.
Several OEMs told industry publications anonymously that 2027-compliant engines will be brought to market “with or without federal mandates.” They’ve already invested billions—that investment isn’t going away.
The key relief OEMs are seeking: Rolling back the extended warranty requirements. The technology will likely stay; the 450,000-mile aftertreatment warranty might not. If that happens, the price premium could drop from $25,000+ to around $8,000-$10,000 per truck.
What This Means for Your Refuse Fleet
The Pricing Question
If EPA 2027 proceeds as written: expect $20,000-$30,000 premiums on new refuse trucks. If warranties are relaxed but technology requirements remain: expect $8,000-$10,000 premiums. If the rules are significantly rolled back: pricing may stay closer to current levels, but this outcome is increasingly unlikely given OEM investments already made.
The Timing Question
OEMs are beginning MY 2026 production now. That gives fleets roughly one year to plan before 2027 trucks arrive. As Penske’s VP of procurement warned at the FTR Transportation Conference: “If you’re not prepared when a decision is finally made, boy, you could be in a tough spot.”
The Technology Reality
Regardless of regulations, the new diesel technology offers benefits. The advanced aftertreatment systems run cleaner in stop-and-go refuse operations. Cylinder deactivation improves fuel economy. The question isn’t whether the technology works—it’s who pays for the extended warranties.
What You Should Do Now
- Budget for both scenarios. Plan for $20,000+ premiums but hope for less. Flexibility beats precision right now.
- Don’t wait for perfect information. If equipment is due for replacement, make decisions based on operational needs, not regulatory speculation.
- Talk to your dealer. Production timelines and pricing will become clearer in the first half of 2026. Stay close to your OEM contacts.
- Consider CNG/RNG. Natural gas engines already meet 75% lower NOx than current diesel standards. For refuse operations with predictable routes, this may be worth evaluating regardless of how diesel regulations shake out.
- Watch the calendar. If EPA hasn’t formally modified the 2027 rules by mid-2026, expect OEMs to proceed with fully compliant vehicles as planned.
The Bottom Line
The technology is coming whether Washington wants it or not—OEMs have made that clear. The real questions are: How much will it cost? And who bears the warranty risk?
For waste haulers, the smart play is preparation over speculation. Know your replacement cycles, budget conservatively, and stay engaged with your equipment partners.
At RDK Truck Sales, we’re tracking these developments daily and we’re here to help you navigate the options. Give us a call, let’s talk about what makes sense for your operation.
